Champions League: Opta predicts Barcelona vs PSG clash
Champions League: Opta predicts Barcelona vs PSG clash
Barcelona have a slender lead to defend at home as they bid to reach the UEFA Champions League semi-finals
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer ahead of Tuesday’s second-leg clash, Barcelona beat PSG (33%) in 41.6% of scenarios.
Barcelona are hoping to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the 13th time overall, and the first time since 2018-19. Only Real Madrid (16) have done so more often.
Kylian Mbappé has scored 13 goals in 11 away knockout games in the Champions League. Only Cristiano Ronaldo (23 goals in 39 games) and Karim Benzema (14 in 34) have more.
Barcelona last lifted the UEFA Champions League trophy to cap Xavi’s final game as a player with the club, as a team spearheaded by the attacking trident of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez and Neymar beat Juventus in the 2014-15 final.
As Xavi the head coach prepares to depart in the summer, European glory is again his aim, and Barcelona has one foot in the semi-finals after last week’s 3-2 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in France.
Ahead of this week’s quarter-final second legs, the Opta supercomputer makes Barcelona the second favourites to win the tournament, their 17.8% chance of glory putting them behind only Manchester City (30.2%). No team is viewed as more likely to reach the last four than the Blaugrana, who successfully defend their first-leg advantage in 76.3% of our tournament simulations.
Following an impressive first half, Barca found themselves 2-1 down early in the second period at the Parc des Princes, courtesy of quickfire goals from Ousmane Dembélé and Vitinha. However, Raphinha got his second goal following a delightful pass from substitute Pedri, before Andreas Christensen’s header put Xavi’s men in the ascendency.
They are now looking to complete the job at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys and reach the Champions League semi-finals for the 13th time, having last done so in 2018-19. Ahead of the quarter-final second legs, only Real Madrid (16 times) have reached the last four more often, with Bayern Munich currently level with the Blaugrana.
It’s not in Barca’s nature to sit back on their slender lead, and they will hope the creativity of Ilkay Gündogan helps them kill the tie. The Germany star – who captained City to the trophy last term – has created the most chances (24) of any player in the Champions League this season, also leading the way for expected assists (3.7 xA) and teeing up four goals. The last Barca midfielder to create more chances in a single European campaign? His current boss Xavi, with 33 in 2012-13.
Gündogan was among the senior players rested for Saturday’s trip to Cádiz in LaLiga, with João Félix’s overhead kick guiding a much-changed Barca side to a 1-0 victory. Christensen and Sergi Roberto were part of that lineup, with first-leg bookings leaving them suspended for Tuesday’s match.
Seventeen-year-old centre-back Pau Cubarsí also started as Barca kept their 14th clean sheet in La Liga this season, and he has not looked overawed by playing in the Champions League. Cubarsí made more line-breaking passes than any other Barca player in the first leg (13), with Arsenal’s William Saliba (32) the only player to better his total of 27 since his Champions League debut on 12 March.
Barca produced arguably the greatest European fightback of all time against PSG in 2017, overturning a 4-0 first-leg deficit with a 6-1 win in a game remembered as ‘la Remontada’ (the comeback). The Blaugrana will know this tie is far from over, then, particularly given PSG’s firepower.
Luis Enrique – the architect of that famous victory – is looking to become the first former Barcelona boss to eliminate them from a Champions League knockout tie. Only two Spanish coaches have previously beaten the Catalan giants in a knockout tie – Liverpool’s Rafael Benítez in 2006-07 (last 16) and Real Madrid’s Vicente del Bosque in 2001-02 (semi-finals).
PSG dominated possession for long spells in France, but they will need far more penetration if they are to turn things around on Tuesday. Neither Kylian Mbappé nor Dembélé was at their devastating best last week, completing just two of 14 attempted dribbles between them (Mbappé 1/6, Dembélé 1/8). Overall, PSG completed only 39% of their dribbles (11/28) – their lowest in a Champions League knockout game since March 2017 – also against Barca (33%).
Mbappé – who looks destined to join Barca’s arch-rivals Madrid this summer – will be desperate to atone here, and he has an exceptional record on his travels in Europe. He has scored 13 goals in 11 away games in the Champions League knockout stages.
Silky midfielder Vitinha will also have a key role to play for the visitors; in the first leg, he became the first player to have over 100 touches (101), misplace no more than two passes (82/84 completed), and score in a Champions League knockout game since Xavi did so for Barca against Celtic in 2008 (one goal, 110 touches and 89/91 passes completed).
PSG – who hold a 10-point lead at the Ligue 1 summit – was not in domestic action last weekend, allowing Luis Enrique to focus purely on Tuesday’s game. The visitors have no new selection issues, with Presnel Kimpembe, Layvin Kurzawa, and Nordi Mukiele still sidelined.
