Champions League: Stats supports Guardiola postulation that Inter will be difficult for City

Inter director Beppe Marotta assures Pep Guardiola is right when he warns the Champions League Final will be ‘no pushover’ for Manchester City.

The two teams will face off at the Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul on June 10 and it is the first time these clubs have ever met in a competitive tournament.

City are the over-riding favourites, especially as they are on track for a Treble with the Premier League and FA Cup as well, but Inter have made a habit of surprising everyone this season.

 “We are honoured to have come this far and now we’ll play to the end against Manchester City with a great deal of pride,” Inter director Marotta told Sport Mediaset.

When told he would be facing Inter in the Final, Guardiola replied this was “not a gift” for the Premier League side.

“Guardiola is right, because we will be no pushover. We’ll make it difficult for them,” added Marotta.

The Nerazzurri have won the European Cup/Champions League on three occasions, most recently in 2010 as part of a Treble under Jose Mourinho.

They were able to qualify through a group with Bayern Munich and Barcelona, eliminating FC Porto, Benfica and Milan in the knockout stages.

Andre Onana has kept eight clean sheets in 12 Champions League matches so far this season.

When Inter coach Simone Inzaghi, was told that his team probably had no chance in the final.

Did he agree, the questioner asked, with those “abroad and in England” who say the real final was Real Madrid against Manchester City? If the idea was to provoke, Inzaghi saw it coming. He leant into the underdog idea, giving an early indication of how he might approach the match on June 10. “Maybe Inter Milan are the underdogs,” he said. “But anything can happen in football.”

Few will give Inter much hope in Istanbul. After coming through a tricky group that featured Bayern Munich and Barcelona, despite two defeats by Bayern, they have enjoyed a friendlier route through the knockout stage.

It is hard to remember a kinder course to a Champions League final than Porto, Benfica and Serie A’s fifth-placed AC Milan. In Italy, Inter sit third, 17 points behind Napoli.

And yet. There are aspects of Inter’s style and identity that give cause for hope that in a one-off match they could still spring a surprise. Inzaghi will know that for all City’s technical brilliance, he has weapons too.

Wealth of attacking options

If Erling Haaland is City’s lone tyrannosaurus rex, Inter can deploy a pack of velociraptors — less potent on their own, but devastating when working together. In Edin Dzeko, Lautaro Martínez, Romelu Lukaku and Joaquín Correa, Inter have arguably the best spread of attacking options in Europe, which has allowed Inzaghi to rest and rotate, tailor his forward pair for specific opponents and change games with aggressive substitutions.

They all offer something different. Dzeko is imperious in the air and pins defenders with his back to goal. Martínez drifts wide and deep, always seeking pockets of space. Lukaku wants to turn and burst through channels, while Correa thrives on the break, when he can use his quick feet to glide past opponents.

Dzeko and Martínez have been the premium front two in the Champions League but the benefits of the multi-attack were obvious on Tuesday night against AC Milan. Dzeko was superb for an hour but it was Martínez’s late goal that ended the tie, which came after Lukaku, on for Dzeko, had teed him up. City’s defenders will not have an easy night.

Counterattacking style

As much as Inter’s attack is key, their success in the Champions League has been largely down to their defence. Inzaghi is fiercely loyal to his 3-5-2 formation, which easily shifts into a 5-3-2 when up against elite opponents such as City, who want to dictate.

Inter have registered five clean sheets in six of their six knockout matches this season, while in the second leg against Milan, they restricted their rivals to a single shot on target. Alessandro Bastoni is the rising star but the 35-year-old Francesco Acerbi and Matteo Darmian, formerly of Manchester United, have got better and better. Behind them, Andre Onana has been the goalkeeper of the tournament.

When executed well, the absorb and counter approach has caused problems for City, who were beaten in a similar way by Antonio Conte’s Tottenham Hotspur in February.

Flying wingbacks and lots of crosses

So much of Inter’s game runs through their two wingbacks, with Denzel Dumfries on the right and Federico Dimarco on the left. Dimarco is the subtler of the two, keener to work the ball through tight areas and create in the final third. Dumfries is a bulldozer, using his athleticism to confront opponents and challenge for aerial balls.

Both are tasked with dictating from wide and providing a constant supply of crosses into the box, where the opposite wingback joins in, along with the two strikers and Nicolò Barella from midfield. No team have attempted more crosses in the Champions League this season than Inter and it would be no surprise if they try to isolate the likes of Kyle Walker and Manuel Akanji at the back post.

Inzaghi has proven himself to be something of a cup coach after winning six in the past four seasons. While that haul includes four Italian Super Cups — a one-off game between the league and cup champions — he has also won two Coppa Italias, one with Lazio in 2018, and another with Inter last year, when they had to defeat Roma, AC Milan and Juventus to lift the trophy.

Inzaghi’s style of keeping it tight and capitalising on the big moments suits the knockout format but there is also a smartness in this team, which makes them difficult to beat. They have Dzeko (37), Lukaku (30), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (34), Darmian (33), Acerbi (35) and Marcelo Brozovic (30); all 30 or older, all eager to capitalise on what could be their last chance in this tournament. Inter will have nothing to lose in the final — which in itself makes them dangerous — but they are experienced too, attuned to what it takes to succeed. They will not go down without a fight.