2026 WCQ: Gabon favourite to pick playoff ticket ahead of Nigeria and Cameroon

Africa's World Cup qualifying campaign has seen nine teams secure their places at next year's tournament in the United States, Canada and Mexico. However, for four CAF teams, there's still a glimmer of hope.

After the CAF playoffs in November have determined which side from the continent will go forth to compete in the inter-confederation FIFA Play-Off Tournament, Africa will have to wait until March to see whether they have a 10th World Cup representative.

When the qualifying group stage concluded in mid-October, the four best-placed of the nine group runners-up secured their places in the African playoff.

CAF announced before the last round of fixtures that, to normalise the group standings, given that Group E had one fewer team competing following the withdrawal of Eritrea, they would not be taking into account results against each group's bottom-placed team to rank the runners-up.

Gabon finished atop the ranking of runners-up, with 19 points from their eight 'eligible' fixtures. The Panthers, the only potential first-time qualifiers in the playoffs, were outstanding during the group stage, losing just one match and finishing one point behind Cote d'Ivoire.

The Democratic Republic of Congo have also cut and, like Gabon, was only one result away from topping their group and returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1974.

While Gabon and the DRC will be delighted to still be 'alive' in the race for the World Cup, Cameroon and Nigeria -- the other two 'lucky losers' -- would surely have expected to have been home and dry by this point.

Instead, Cameroon's four drawn matches, as well as their defeat by Cape Verde in Praia, left them four points behind the islanders, condemning the most successful African side in World Cup qualification to the playoffs.

The chaos going on behind the scenes in the country's football community -- notably the animosity between FA president Samuel Eto'o and head coach Marc Brys -- doesn't augur well, but the Indomitable Lions have proved their capacity in the past to triumph over adversity.

For the Super Eagles, a playoff berth, having missed out on top spot to South Africa, is both an ignominious outcome and a major relief, with their campaign lurching from one crisis to another as they won just four of their 10 group fixtures.

Nonetheless, a Victor Osimhen-inspired 4-0 demolition of World Cup hopefuls Benin in their final qualifier was testament to their quality and could prove the launchpad for the most unlikely of qualifications.

The group runners-up who failed to advance are Burkina Faso, Niger, Madagascar, Uganda and Namibia.

Gabon, which finished top of the runners-up rankings, will take on fourth-placed Nigeria in one semi, while Cameroon and the DRC meet in a Central African derby in the second semi. The brackets were decided based on the October 2025 FIFA World Rankings.

Both semifinals will take place on Thursday, November 13, with the two victors advancing to the final on Sunday, November 16.

 All three matches will be held in Morocco, although the exact venue for the semis and the final, as well as specific kickoff times, have yet to be confirmed by FIFA, and it remains to be seen whether both fixtures on November 13 will take place in the same stadium or even city.

The unpredictable and unprecedented nature of the format -- not to mention the participation of four flawed teams -- largely prevents confident predictions, as four teams will become one to represent the continent in the FIFA Play-Off Tournament.

With both semis being one-off clashes in a neutral venue, not to mention the mere two-day rest before the final, the prospects of a shock outcome appear high... although what would a 'shock outcome' be given the four disparate teams set to compete?

Gabon and Congo will fancy their chances, coming off the back of impressive group stage campaigns in which they pushed the fancied Ivorians and Senegalese close. The Panthers, in particular, were outstanding going forward, with the mesmerising Denis Bouanga and veteran Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scoring 15 goals between them.

 They comfortably outscored the other three teams in the semis, and dropped just five points during the entirety of the qualifying campaign -- fewer than the likes of automatic qualifiers Cape Verde, South Africa and Senegal.

So often in chaos in recent years, their decision to keep faith in local coach Thierry Mouyouma after a series of fairly forgettable foreign managers has finally given the Panthers a sense of identity and rare belief.

The same can't be said of Cameroon. The five-time African champions have utterly lost their aura. Dropping points against Eswatini was a lowlight of the qualifying campaign, while the defeat in Praia, as well as draws with Angola (twice) and Libya, have made for a miserable few months.

Things came to a head during the final qualifier against Angola, where Eto'o was filmed engaging in a heated discussion with a supporter about the team's failings.

The likes of Bryan Mbeumo, Carlos Baleba and Frank Anguissa still represent genuine quality, while veterans such as Vincent Aboubakar and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting could help the Lions salvage something from a testing year.

Nigeria have endured similar hardships, notably going through four different head coaches during the course of the qualifying campaign. Momentum is certainly on Nigeria's side, though, with current coach Eric Chelle going six games unbeaten in the qualifiers after taking the helm.

The Super Eagles conclude on a high note, with that 4-0 pasting of Benin, with South Africa's points deduction for fielding an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena, against Lesotho in March ultimately not influencing the group standings.

Nigeria can also call upon the majority of the players who reached the final of the Africa Cup of Nations last year, with the experience of navigating high-profile matches this collective gained along the way.

If Osimhen can recapture the form he brought as Benin were put to the sword, Nigeria are the outstanding contender to progress.

Like Gabon, DR Congo could take advantage of their 'outsiders' tag to play without the weight of expectation that Cameroon will surely carry on their shoulders when the pair meet in a Central African derby in their semi.

They're well ahead of the progress that was anticipated under Sebastien Desabre when he took the helm after failure to reach the 2022 tournament, and the Frenchman has also made the Leopards tough to beat.

The 3-2 defeat by Senegal in Kinshasa was an outlier, and beyond that fixture, the two-time African champions kept six clean sheets during the group stage. Attackers such as Cédric Bakambu, Théo Bongonda and Yoane Wissa ensure they have many ways to hurt opponents.